There is a reasonable probability the U.S. dollar index will fall below 74.50 and retest the lower edge of the base of the symmetrical triangle pattern near 72.50. Traders will look for a consolidation pattern to develop between 72.50 and 74.50.
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Any fall in the euro-dollar below $1.36 has a high probability of cascading into a fall to $1.29, which in turn, will have a high probability of quickly falling into the consolidation support area with a potential downside target near $1.24.
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If the price of gold falls below $1,600 and investors pull back from risky assets, the US dollar could appreciate by as much as 30 percent, Ron William, a technical strategist at MIG Bank, told CNBC
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If the price of gold falls below $1,600 an ounce, it could go down by nearly 30 percent from peak and the dollar could strengthen by a similar percentage, Ron William, a technical strategist at MIG Bank, told CNBC on Monday.
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Failure of support near 80 yen has a downside target near 73 yen. Persistent Government intervention can slow the progress towards this target but it may not be enough to prevent this target being achieved.
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The euro fell on Wednesday, pressured by selling by hedge funds and stop-loss offers as worries over Greece's finances cast a pall over the single currency, bringing it closer to testing crucial support levels on charts.
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The Euro/Dollar is at a significant point with the potential to prove the placement of trend line B and thus signal a continuation of the up trend. Failure of support at trend line B signals a change in the trend and a move towards $1.29.
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